Olaf Scholz’s announced decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine could be the moment that finally marks the beginning of the end of this hideous war.
For too long, the German chancellor has dragged her feet on this decision, ignoring increasingly urgent requests from her NATO allies to help the Ukrainians by providing this vital material. Although the claims remain unconfirmed as of this writing, if true, the news could prove game-changing.
As our former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, wrote eloquently in these pages yesterday, Germany’s decision whether or not to allow the deployment of Leopard 2 tanks was a key stumbling block in preventing a quick victory in Kyiv.
So far, modern defensive weapons, ammunition and training provided by the West have kept Ukraine from losing.
General Lord Dannatt: Olaf Scholz’s reported decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine could be the moment that will finally mark the beginning of the end of this horrible war. Pictured: A Leopard 2 tank during a NATO exercise in Latvia
But now President Zelensky and his armed forces could win on the battlefield. The war is at an impasse. The front lines, from the Russian border in the northeast to the Black Sea, have moved little since Ukrainian gains in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall.
The key to ending this stalemate is the provision of an effective offensive capability to lead the fight against the Russians. Simply put, Ukraine needs modern main battle tanks.
Britain has once again led the way by providing a significant package of what Kyiv needs, including Challenger 2 tanks.
Others have provided useful support packages, but the urgent need is for main battle tanks, well-protected infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery and huge amounts of ammunition.
Yesterday, in addition to claims about German Leopard 2 tanks, it was reported that the US was “leaning” towards sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine. These would only help more.
Either way, it’s crucial that the tanks arrive quickly. As Mr Johnson correctly pointed out, Putin is almost certain to launch another offensive in late winter or early spring. Based on the lackluster and chaotic performance of the Russian military so far, I predict this will be a bloody failure and a tragedy for many Russian families.
The next few weeks are therefore vital for Ukraine to acquire the capacity to launch its own counter-offensive in the wake of Russian losses. If Mr. Scholz did indeed give the go-ahead, those tanks could be moving into training areas within days.
For too long, the German chancellor has dragged her feet on this decision, ignoring increasingly urgent demands from her NATO allies to help the Ukrainians. Pictured: Scholz with a Leopard 2 tank in October
That would be good enough. Leopards were designed for army conscripts, so any Ukrainian who knows how to handle a tank should have no trouble adapting to them.
The Leopards will be particularly favored on the Kharkiv front, where the Ukrainians have the best chance of winning.
If they can break the morale of the Russian conscripts here and break the back of the Russian army, the current fighting in Soledar and Bakhmut – which are geographically difficult areas – could become easier. And although the Russians have a large number of conscripts, this does not guarantee success.
For an army to lose, it does not necessarily have to suffer huge losses of men and material. On the contrary, the individual soldier must believe that he has lost. Badly led like the Russians, the soldiers will vote with their feet and save their skins.
We saw it around Kharkiv last fall with leaked phone calls from discouraged Russian soldiers lamenting the way the war was going in the face of a swift Ukrainian counteroffensive. With some determination, Ukraine can do it again. And they must. The positions of the two parties are irreconcilable.
President Zelensky has made it clear that all of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, including Crimea, must be returned to his country.
Meanwhile Putin, pictured here via video link on January 24, needs to show his people he got something out of this war
Less than that would represent failure.
Meanwhile, Putin must show his people that he got something out of this war.
He failed to achieve regime change in Kyiv, but at the very least he must retain Crimea and ideally control the four eastern oblasts which he declared to be “Russia forever”.
These two positions are contradictory, which means that this war must end on the battlefield.
Breaking the deadlock is in all of our interests in the West. Otherwise, neither side will prevail and the war will solidify into a paralysis similar to the Western Front of World War I.
Putin will remain in the Kremlin and in the West and NATO will be condemned to a long and costly repetition of the cold war.
Insecurity could grip Europe for a generation, with no end in view of high energy prices and rising costs of living.
Berlin must realize that the future of Europe is once again in its hands. We have to send the tanks now.
General Lord Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff.
