Ukraine could win its war against Russia this year, but may not be able to because Western military support is “too weak and too late”, a military expert said today.
JUSTIN BRONK, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, analyzed the latest situation in an article for MailOnline today as Ukraine prepares for a crucial spring and summer offensive.
It comes as Germany has finally agreed to supply Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks after stalling on its decision for months. An announcement from the United States is expected later today.
Mr Bronk said the possibility of using new armored vehicles in early spring could allow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces to “achieve decisive breakthroughs” against Russia without suffering “crippling infantry losses”.
The expert said that Ukraine has a chance to win the war in 2023 but “if he can’t grab it because of too little Western support, too late”, then “the chance may not come again”.
JUSTIN BRONK, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, analyzed the latest situation in an article for MailOnline today as Ukraine prepares for a crucial spring and summer offensive
After almost two months of brutal but more geographically limited battles in Ukraine, both sides appear to be gathering strength for new offensives.
Russian forces lost several thousand dead and wounded in repeated attacks on the towns of Soledar and Bakhmut.
They used heavy artillery and infantry assaults to force slow and extremely costly advances through lines of muddy, shell-riddled trenches that in many ways resemble World War I.
Ukrainian troops also suffered heavy losses defending these areas of Donbass, but nevertheless one of the key elements of both sides’ strategies has been to try to limit the number of forces they commit.
Ukraine ended 2022 with two successful counter-offensives, one in the north and the other in the south of the country. In the north of Kharkiv Oblast was liberated, along with the key cities of Kupiansk, Izyum and Lyman.
Meanwhile, in the south, most of Kherson Oblast was liberated, including the regional capital Kherson, as the Russian army was wiped out and eventually forced to withdraw from all its positions on the western bank. of the Dnipro.
However, the effort cost heavy casualties, especially in elite Ukrainian brigades capable of large-scale mobile offensive operations.
Similarly, Russian casualties have been extremely heavy, with recent Norwegian intelligence estimates suggesting that around 180,000 Russian troops have been killed, seriously injured or captured since the start of the invasion.
Mr Bronk believes Ukraine could beat Russia this year, but Western support would be vital. Pictured: Ukrainian servicemen fire towards Russian positions near the town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region yesterday
Smoke rises after shelling in Soledar, the site of fierce battles with Russian forces in Donetsk region, Ukraine
Consequently, both sides attempted to disrupt the other’s attempts to rebuild their forces with new recruits and new equipment this winter, with the aim of regaining the initiative first in the spring.
Russia has mobilized about 300,000 new recruits from the end of September 2022; about half being sent immediately to Ukraine to stabilize the front lines that had been so well pushed back by Ukrainian forces.
Troops sent there quickly had very few opportunities to train and often very poor equipment, so they suffered appalling losses in the winter battles and had low morale.
However, the approximately 150,000 others have trained since September and received tanks, artillery and armored vehicles to form new units.
These will likely be used to lead another Russian offensive push in February, with a more ambitious goal than the fierce fighting around Bakhmut and Soledar in recent months.
They will not have had time to become good soldiers or professional units, but will be far more capable than the conscripts freshly thrown into the lines before Christmas.
In addition, Russia is preparing to launch another wave of mobilization, apparently aimed at generating up to 500,000 additional recruits to generate more units.
The Russian military industry is also belatedly put on a war footing in response to a current severe shortage of ammunition of all types at the front.
Since Putin had not planned for a long war, Russian industry was not mobilized to meet the sudden huge demand until it was clear that things had gone very wrong in Ukraine.
A woman walks past a damaged house in Bakhmut – a town that has been the center of heavy fighting
Justin Bronk said being able to operate his new armored vehicles in early spring could allow President Zelensky’s (right-wing) forces to “achieve decisive breakthroughs”. Putin is pictured on the left
The result was a growing lack of modern equipment and even artillery ammunition for Russian units at the front and those formed to train new units.
Today, factories are focused on building large quantities of fewer ammo types, vehicles, and weapons, which over time will likely lead to significantly improved quantities reaching Russian troops.
Ukraine mobilized around 700,000 personnel when it was invaded in February last year, and also spent the winter training and equipping as many as it could to reinforce depleted units and to form new ones.
However, equipment is a major bottleneck, as much of Ukraine’s defense industry and economy has been badly damaged by Russian missile strikes.
Western partners have provided vital large-scale aid to supply Ukraine’s heroic defensive struggle, with anti-tank missiles, air defense systems, artillery munitions and the famous HIMARS rocket artillery system making part of the largest deliveries to date.
However, what they need now is heavy equipment to regain as much of their stolen territory as possible while Russia is in a weak position.
Russia’s planned offensive in February will fail to defeat Ukraine and will likely suffer further terrible casualties as relatively poorly trained units attempt to storm Ukrainian lines that have been fortified during the winter.
A German Leopard 2 tank at a German Army demonstration event. A total of 14 will now be sent to Ukraine
America should provide M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Mr Bronk says having modern tanks will be vital for Ukraine
The decisive question is how successful Ukraine’s own counter-offensive in the spring and summer will be.
What Ukrainian troops need are hundreds of armored vehicles with the firepower that can protect them from artillery fire as they cross muddy battlefields to attack Russian positions, and tanks main combat units and mobile artillery systems to provide fire support and anti-tank punch.
If enough Ukrainian units can be trained, supplied and supported to operate vehicles like the US M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle and the German Leopard 2 main battle tank by early spring, then they could be able to achieve decisive breakthroughs against Russian forces without suffering crippling infantry losses. In the process.
That should be the West’s goal – to help Ukrainian forces retake as much territory as possible before the next Russian wave of mobilized conscripts and renewed military industrial production begin to shift the balance of power in the fall. .
If Ukraine does not receive the heavy equipment and all the fuel, maintenance, assault bridges and engineering vehicles needed to use it effectively on a large scale by spring, Russia could still be able to force a crushing stalemate that will continue until 2024.
Ukraine has a chance to win the war in 2023, but if it cannot seize it due to too little Western support, too late the chance may not come again.
For the West, too, a stalemate that drags on into next year and potentially beyond will be far more costly and destabilizing in the long run than providing Ukraine with what it needs to win now.
Ukrainian forces went to the front lines yesterday. Mr. Zelensky repeatedly asked for modern battle tanks
